The debate over where China is headed is picking up steam.  As with our own markets, it’s fascinating to see reasonably intelligent people look at the same set of data and evidence and come up with diametrically opposing predictions.

As is the case with these two recent articles:  Steve Rattner’s “Will China Stumble?  Don’t Bet on It” from the New York Times, and the editorial from The Wall Street Journal, “China’s Hard Landing:  The state-led growth model is leading the country into trouble.”

Whom to believe?  The Journal has certainly gotten plenty wrong.  Still, their case is much more predicated on data versus mere opinion, I think.  Plus, Steve Rattner, Obama’s former “car czar,” loves state direction of industry, so of course he’s a Red China fan.  However, his appalling wrongness on the auto bailouts makes his whole use of GM’s China operation as evidence that China is on the right path a joke.

Plus, as I read Rattner’s cheerleading, I can’t help but wonder if he’s paid any attention at all to Japan the past fifteen or twenty years.  Because on Rattner’s own telling, China sounds an awful lot like the last Asian powerhouse we all fretted about, and we all know how well that turned out.